Is Economics caving in on the altar of facts checking?
The first week of April 2019 was a significant and important period in Ghana’s political landscape. I say so, because, we saw within that period, the two main political parties descend into the realm of intellectual discourse on the challenges facing the Republic. I was particularly elated and at the same time puzzled.
I was elated because, for a long while, our political space got engrossed in discussions that matter most to the ordinary Ghanaian. It was not about the shameful acts of hoodlums beautifully decorated as “vigilantes” seizing public toilet(s) or besieging district courts ostensibly to free their men who have been arranged before a lawfully constituted court for various crimes, or the beating up of senior party officials. Or, the bloody display of impudence which heralds the Ayewaso by-election after the painful demise of Hon. Agyarko. It was instead about discussions on the economy of Ghana; what has been achieved and what we can accomplish together as a people desirous of causing a change in the lives of our people. I guess, all well-meaning Ghanaians are ecstatic about this particular development as well.
The Economic Management Team (EMT) of Government headed by the Vice President of the Republic, H.E. Dr Mamudu Bawumia on the 3rd April 12, 2019 engaged Ghanaian in a town-hall meeting and updated the Nation on major economic developments including; the successful 3.0 billion Eurobond issuance, Ghana’s exit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme after one-year extension, the Ghanaian cedi’s performance and the downward review of Port duties among others. Members of the EMT who participated in the town-hall were; Hon. Yaw Osafo Marfo, Hon. Ken Ofori Atta, Hon. Prof George Gyan Baffour, Hon. Kwadwo Alan Kyeremanten, Hon. Dr Akoto Osei, Hon. Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Hon. Peter Amewu. Regrettably, the EMT does not have women on the team, and I think it’s not good enough especially that women constitute the larger part of the population.
The biggest opposition party- the National Democratic Congress (NDC)- which formed the previous government, held a presser the following day where its star Economist and member of Parliament for Bongo, Hon. Albert Adongo provided what the NDC says it’s the true state of the economy of Ghana. His presentation delved into many controversies that have beset the government in the past three years. Hon. Adongo, was, however, very critical of the government and the Bank of Ghana (BoG) concerning the banking sector where five local banks have collapsed within two years because they were insolvent. The subtle political punches on the Finance Minister were easy to notice throughout the presentation.
Both men, in my opinion, did their presentations to their best of abilities and therefore, require of us to respect and applaud them. The affable Vice President demonstrated as he has done severally, his undisputed and firm command over the subject matter. Hon. Adongo equally displayed his economic, banking and finance prowess at all times during the presentation, albeit occasional colourisation and unusual conclusions. These developments, just like few ones in the past have been well received by Ghanaians. Ghanaians home and abroad are currently dissecting and interrogating the two presentations and all kinds of conclusions drawn. The discussions have been lively and decorous with occasional politicisation. Ghanaians simpatico to the government have hailed the Vice President’s presentation verbatim and denounced that of Hon. Adongo. Those also friendly to the NDC have done the same.
Economics Professors from the Nation’s Universities, Media Personalities and Policy Think-Tanks have also joined in the discussion. Many of these groupings have questioned the reliability and accuracy of the data used for both presentations. Some even challenged the numbers and openly highlighted the variabilities in the data and how such deficiencies affect the proposed policy prescriptions. Also, some weren’t sure about the sincerity of the politicians in telling the Ghanaians the truth about the state of the economy without tainting it. With such height of distrust for political parties, perhaps, the academic, think Tanks and Experts, in my opinion, become the most critical voice that must be heard because they do not have a direct stake in the matter at hand. That notwithstanding, the exercise was fruitful and must be done routinely.
Here is the puzzle bit. As I was elated about these developments, I took to my various social media handles to express my opinion(s) on key pointers in both presentations. I became active on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn after some period of inactivity. My active social media engagements that day caught the attention of one of my friends from the University of Tokyo, who is a data scientist and works for a big IT company. My friend wanted to know what has enlivened the fire in my belly to be that active that day. He rang me right away and as impatient as I was, I run him through the various developments; from Eurobond to IMF, the Ministry of Finance’s kenkye party, the cedis performance, and so on. I sent him all the links to the various new items. I was truly ecstatic. He quickly looked at the information I shared with him, and minutes later, he retorted sarcastically. To my surprise, my friend was not enthused with the highlights I shared with him, and that made me a bit curious.
I asked him why he was not happy, and he simply said…Why should I be? Why must economic analysis based on fewer data point excite me? He told me about how he felt anytime he read analysis done by economist utilising a few data points. In short, my friend felt, there was not much that we should be happy about because the data history and forecast did not provide enough for a proper analysis. Many government statistics across the globe is done on the horizon of short to medium term- usually six years- three years outer and three years forward. The limited data points present a limitation to the kind of informed analysis that could be carried out and also a kind that will be able to withstand shocks over the long-time horizon. My friend and I dropped the line on each other and promised to catch-up at a later time.
I thought hard about my friend’s observation about economics and the various analysis we often do. I still do not have a response to him yet. But, perhaps the confidence of my Data Scientist friend is derived from the recent strides dataism has made in the body of knowledge. I am tempted to believe the paradigm is shifting and dataism is taking center stage. To stress the point further, it is important to acquaint ourselves with knowledge dominance throughout history where it shifts from one disciple to the other depending on relevance. At each epoch, a particular discipline appears to dictate the knowledge paradigm of the world. There were periods where theology and political science (cognitive stage) dominated the body of knowledge and leadership of the world.
There were other periods in world history, where medicine also was the focus of world development and leadership. This was the period where the world suffered diseases and plagues which killed many. The Law/legal fraternity at some point in history also was the most cherished and preferred vocation as it offered solutions required for the challenges the world faced at the time. The economics dominance which happened in the 19th century from the agricultural through to the scientific revolutions has continued to today. This prestigious position is suddenly under threat from dataism.
Dataism which is about a renewed mindset created by the emergence of big data is gaining momentum recently. Dataists are utilising dataism tools – big data and computer algorithms- to analysis complex world issues in medicine, agriculture, housing and so on. In using these dataism techniques, the cognitive biases which are associated with the human mind and knowledge attenuate significantly. It enhances the potentiality for discovering new behaviours previously unnoticed. The predictability and precision in using these approaches are much higher and gives significant levels of accuracy. Embracing dataism requires humans to give in to algorithms to assist in making the most important decisions concerning lives, including those on the economy, politics, and society.
Fact checking has exposed the inherent difficulties in economic analysis especially from this part of the world, where data quality is always a suspect. Need I say, however, that not all the false analysis in social science are a result of data deficiencies, but are also a result of human biases. These deficiencies luckily are addressed by dataism. Perhaps, the time to embrace dataism is now as we seek to reduce the disagreements which greet economic data and analysis put forward by governments and opposition parties.
I was elated because, for a long while, our political space got engrossed in discussions that matter most to the ordinary Ghanaian. It was not about the shameful acts of hoodlums beautifully decorated as “vigilantes” seizing public toilet(s) or besieging district courts ostensibly to free their men who have been arranged before a lawfully constituted court for various crimes, or the beating up of senior party officials. Or, the bloody display of impudence which heralds the Ayewaso by-election after the painful demise of Hon. Agyarko. It was instead about discussions on the economy of Ghana; what has been achieved and what we can accomplish together as a people desirous of causing a change in the lives of our people. I guess, all well-meaning Ghanaians are ecstatic about this particular development as well.
The Economic Management Team (EMT) of Government headed by the Vice President of the Republic, H.E. Dr Mamudu Bawumia on the 3rd April 12, 2019 engaged Ghanaian in a town-hall meeting and updated the Nation on major economic developments including; the successful 3.0 billion Eurobond issuance, Ghana’s exit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme after one-year extension, the Ghanaian cedi’s performance and the downward review of Port duties among others. Members of the EMT who participated in the town-hall were; Hon. Yaw Osafo Marfo, Hon. Ken Ofori Atta, Hon. Prof George Gyan Baffour, Hon. Kwadwo Alan Kyeremanten, Hon. Dr Akoto Osei, Hon. Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Hon. Peter Amewu. Regrettably, the EMT does not have women on the team, and I think it’s not good enough especially that women constitute the larger part of the population.
The biggest opposition party- the National Democratic Congress (NDC)- which formed the previous government, held a presser the following day where its star Economist and member of Parliament for Bongo, Hon. Albert Adongo provided what the NDC says it’s the true state of the economy of Ghana. His presentation delved into many controversies that have beset the government in the past three years. Hon. Adongo, was, however, very critical of the government and the Bank of Ghana (BoG) concerning the banking sector where five local banks have collapsed within two years because they were insolvent. The subtle political punches on the Finance Minister were easy to notice throughout the presentation.
Both men, in my opinion, did their presentations to their best of abilities and therefore, require of us to respect and applaud them. The affable Vice President demonstrated as he has done severally, his undisputed and firm command over the subject matter. Hon. Adongo equally displayed his economic, banking and finance prowess at all times during the presentation, albeit occasional colourisation and unusual conclusions. These developments, just like few ones in the past have been well received by Ghanaians. Ghanaians home and abroad are currently dissecting and interrogating the two presentations and all kinds of conclusions drawn. The discussions have been lively and decorous with occasional politicisation. Ghanaians simpatico to the government have hailed the Vice President’s presentation verbatim and denounced that of Hon. Adongo. Those also friendly to the NDC have done the same.
Economics Professors from the Nation’s Universities, Media Personalities and Policy Think-Tanks have also joined in the discussion. Many of these groupings have questioned the reliability and accuracy of the data used for both presentations. Some even challenged the numbers and openly highlighted the variabilities in the data and how such deficiencies affect the proposed policy prescriptions. Also, some weren’t sure about the sincerity of the politicians in telling the Ghanaians the truth about the state of the economy without tainting it. With such height of distrust for political parties, perhaps, the academic, think Tanks and Experts, in my opinion, become the most critical voice that must be heard because they do not have a direct stake in the matter at hand. That notwithstanding, the exercise was fruitful and must be done routinely.
Here is the puzzle bit. As I was elated about these developments, I took to my various social media handles to express my opinion(s) on key pointers in both presentations. I became active on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn after some period of inactivity. My active social media engagements that day caught the attention of one of my friends from the University of Tokyo, who is a data scientist and works for a big IT company. My friend wanted to know what has enlivened the fire in my belly to be that active that day. He rang me right away and as impatient as I was, I run him through the various developments; from Eurobond to IMF, the Ministry of Finance’s kenkye party, the cedis performance, and so on. I sent him all the links to the various new items. I was truly ecstatic. He quickly looked at the information I shared with him, and minutes later, he retorted sarcastically. To my surprise, my friend was not enthused with the highlights I shared with him, and that made me a bit curious.
I asked him why he was not happy, and he simply said…Why should I be? Why must economic analysis based on fewer data point excite me? He told me about how he felt anytime he read analysis done by economist utilising a few data points. In short, my friend felt, there was not much that we should be happy about because the data history and forecast did not provide enough for a proper analysis. Many government statistics across the globe is done on the horizon of short to medium term- usually six years- three years outer and three years forward. The limited data points present a limitation to the kind of informed analysis that could be carried out and also a kind that will be able to withstand shocks over the long-time horizon. My friend and I dropped the line on each other and promised to catch-up at a later time.
I thought hard about my friend’s observation about economics and the various analysis we often do. I still do not have a response to him yet. But, perhaps the confidence of my Data Scientist friend is derived from the recent strides dataism has made in the body of knowledge. I am tempted to believe the paradigm is shifting and dataism is taking center stage. To stress the point further, it is important to acquaint ourselves with knowledge dominance throughout history where it shifts from one disciple to the other depending on relevance. At each epoch, a particular discipline appears to dictate the knowledge paradigm of the world. There were periods where theology and political science (cognitive stage) dominated the body of knowledge and leadership of the world.
There were other periods in world history, where medicine also was the focus of world development and leadership. This was the period where the world suffered diseases and plagues which killed many. The Law/legal fraternity at some point in history also was the most cherished and preferred vocation as it offered solutions required for the challenges the world faced at the time. The economics dominance which happened in the 19th century from the agricultural through to the scientific revolutions has continued to today. This prestigious position is suddenly under threat from dataism.
Dataism which is about a renewed mindset created by the emergence of big data is gaining momentum recently. Dataists are utilising dataism tools – big data and computer algorithms- to analysis complex world issues in medicine, agriculture, housing and so on. In using these dataism techniques, the cognitive biases which are associated with the human mind and knowledge attenuate significantly. It enhances the potentiality for discovering new behaviours previously unnoticed. The predictability and precision in using these approaches are much higher and gives significant levels of accuracy. Embracing dataism requires humans to give in to algorithms to assist in making the most important decisions concerning lives, including those on the economy, politics, and society.
Fact checking has exposed the inherent difficulties in economic analysis especially from this part of the world, where data quality is always a suspect. Need I say, however, that not all the false analysis in social science are a result of data deficiencies, but are also a result of human biases. These deficiencies luckily are addressed by dataism. Perhaps, the time to embrace dataism is now as we seek to reduce the disagreements which greet economic data and analysis put forward by governments and opposition parties.
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